Researcher says trends indicate that Edmonton’s 2011 Aboriginal population figure low

November 20, 2015

When the figures are collected next year for the long form federal census, John Kolkman is convinced it will indicate that Edmonton’s 2011 Aboriginal population figure was low. But he still thinks it will be decades before Edmonton surpasses Winnipeg as the centre with the highest urban Aboriginal population.

Kolkman, research coordinator for the Edmonton Social Planning Council, released the findings of the 2015 edition of Tracking the Trends for Edmonton yesterday.

“I suspect we got an undercount of the Aboriginal population (in 2011) with it being a voluntary survey. If you look at the trend line, and we have stats on this going back 30 or more years, it was a surprisingly small increase, particularly when you look at the City of Edmonton,” said Kolkman.

According to 2011 figures, the city’s Aboriginal population was 41,985 and metro Edmonton Aboriginal population was 61,765. The city population represented a growth of only 3,815 from 2006 census, while metro Edmonton jumped by almost 10,000. But in 2001, the city Aboriginal population was 30,365 and the 2006 census pegged it at 38,170.  In that same time frame, the metro population grew from 40,930 to 52,105. The Aboriginal population in the City of Edmonton increased 74 per cent from 1996 to 2011 and 88 per cent over that time frame for metro Edmonton. While Edmonton’s metropolitan census area includes the First Nations of Enoch Cree, Alexander and Paul, as a percentage of the overall Aboriginal population it has little impact on figures, says Kolkman.

There are numerous reasons for the possible undercounting in Edmonton in 2011. That year, the population was tracked through the National Household Survey, which depended heavily on volunteers and made it difficult to get representative samples of people, says Kolkman. As well, people with low socio-economic status don’t usually respond to surveys.

But even with a discrepancy taken into consideration, Kolkman says Edmonton sits firmly as the second highest urban Aboriginal population and questions the city’s claim it will push Winnipeg out of first place. In 2011, metro Winnipeg led the way with an Aboriginal population of 78,420.
“I’m not sure we will overtake Winnipeg. I’m not sure where that is coming from,” said Kolkman. “It’s possible, I suppose, but I think it would be a few decades because obviously the Aboriginal population in Winnipeg is also growing just like it is here.”

Kolkman says the federal government’s recent decision to return to the long form census will provide much needed, detailed information and will allow provinces and municipalities to get a better handle on the local trends.

Tracking the Trends uses figures from the 2011 NHS along with a variety of other sources, including City of Edmonton municipal census (2012), Alberta Education high school completion rates (2014), Alberta Labour Force statistics (2015), Homeward Trust Edmonton point-in-time homeless count for 2014, Realtors Association of Edmonton (2015) and various Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. statistics.

“We tried to use as up-to-date data as we can,” said Kolkman. “We do have more up to date    data but you can’t always break out the Aboriginal population. It’s really only in the census data that you can break out Aboriginals.”

What can be pulled out offers a fuller picture of the Aboriginal population.

“I’ve spoken to people in the Aboriginal community … and (they) think there’s a lot of misinformation about Aboriginal people, that they are doing better than people (in general) think,” said Kolkman.

In 2015, Aboriginal unemployment increased after decraesing by 7.9 per cent between 2009 to 2014. In that same time frame, the general population saw a decrease of 1.4 per in unemployment. Kolkman points out that unemployment rates for First Nations people tend to be higher than those for Metis.

“When the economy turns down, it doesn’t seem to be very good for Aboriginal employment,” said Kolkman, noting that a disproportionate amount of Aboriginal men work in the boom-or-bust construction industry and many Aboriginal women hold service-related positions.

One of the more interesting trends taken from 2010 data, says Kolkman, points to where Aboriginal people get their money. Employment is the main source of income for Aboriginal people at 82 per cent compared to the general population at 81 per cent. Aboriginal people pay more in taxes (at close to 15 per cent) than they receive in government transfers (at 12 per cent). They also collect less in investment income at close to six per cent compared to the overall population at 11 per cent.

The difference, says Kolkman, is that the Aboriginal population is young, their income is lower and they’re saving less money for investment as they require most of their pay cheque to meet the bills.